MetsFail

So it’s come to this.  A staring contest with none other than John Smoltz.  How did it get to this point?

Rewind to early last November, when the Hot Stove season kicked off in earnest.  The

The new 2010 Mets slogan

Mets, coming of FAILtacular season, identify a slugging left-fielder, a starting pitcher, and a primary catcher as the biggest holes to be filled.  Mets fans believed a dose of Lackey, a pinch of Holliday, a dash of Molina, and maybe even a side of O-Dog would let the team dust itself off of a year in which they found themselves closer to last place than to first when it ended.  After all, J-Wilps for the third year in a row issued a ’this is unacceptable’ statement, pledging to give Omar what he needs to git ‘r done.

Fast forward now to the present, with Spring Training looming just three short weeks away.  The Jason Bay signing around New Year’s proved to be the single orgasmic moment Mets fans were able to enjoy, even if his rumored health issues left us feeling somewhat uneasy, if satisfied (like using the pull-and-pray method).  Omar otherwise pretended to look busy by making “deals” to fortify the team’s depth in much the same way one would buy life vests of questionable effectiveness before fixing the boat itself.  Seemingly put off by the team’s perception of loserdom or simply not happy with their offer, free agents spurned the Mets for greener pastures.

Truth be told, the front office was stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place:  they could’ve opted to overpay for generally mediocre talent in years or money, or they could’ve been more conservative with their offers at the risk of frustrating an already-jilted fan base.  Sure, the organization now needs to lie in the bed they made but Rotoworld perhaps best summed up the perception issue that is the Mets’ new reality.  Two of the most baffling non-moves this winter, at least in this writer’s opinion, was passing up on two players who not only would’ve been upgrades at their respective positions, but openly lobbied for the Mets to sign them at a time when the team could use all the goodwill it can garner!

Where were we?  Ah, right.  The awkwardness of targeting AARP member John Smoltz to round out the rotation, which the New York Times charitably characterized as “Santana and four sets of crossed fingers.”  While not quite on the same level as the Glavine signing a few years back, a potential deal still gives Smoltz a chance to join the rarified club of players who killed the Mets both as an opponent and as a team member.  Has anything good ever come out of signing a 43-year old pitcher not named Nolan Ryan?  We might find out soon enough.

The MetsFAIL Projection Factor on this deal, assuming it happens, will depend largely on the variables of health, role, and money.  Worst case: Smoltz is tagged as a starter, makes a dozen starts before getting hurt indefinitely, and hauls away $5+ million in the process.  This scenario occuring results in an MFPF of 77%.  Best case: Smoltz is borderline effective as a starter, is open to coming out of the ‘pen if demoted, has a positive effect on the rest of the staff, stays reasonably healthy, and gets paid something like $2-3 million with incentives.  This scenario results in an MFPF of 48% because the dude’s still 43 years old.

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